Joe,
There is no tracker this morning as there were no ballot return reports from counties over the weekend. We will continue to get data all week, and you can checkout our extensive daily schedule for getting return data here or checkout the PDI help center document on early vote here.
So, without new data this am, here is a quick look at what the numbers so far could mean for total turnout.
Primary election turnout in California it has been very erratic. Since 2000 the turnout of registered voters has ranged from a high of 58% in 2008 to a low of 31% in 2012. The average turnout is 46%, but it varies more than any other statewide election due to the quality of the candidates and contests on the ballot by the time the Presidential races for each party get to California.
Compared to these past presidential primaries, our rate of return for vote by mail ballots has dropped dramatically, but comparing to those cycles is flawed as we have dramatically increased the number of voters registered, and transitioned to a system where everyone is getting a mailed ballot, not just those who request it.
While the 2022 gubernatorial primary election wasn’t a presidential primary, it was at least a primary where all voters in were mailed ballots, and a nearly identical total registration of 22 million voters. And looking at that most recent primary we can see turnout so far – two weekends before to Election Day – is significantly lower. We are currently at nearly 1.5 million ballots returned, where in 2022 we were at 1.7 – a 12% reduction in the number of returned ballots. And the 2022 gubernatorial primary was only 33% turnout.
And as we know from past experience, a dropping turnout does not impact all voter subgroups equally. When turnout drops in California we see an electorate that is whiter, older and more conservative than the total registration.
As an example, looking at where we are so far in the ballot returns we can see the huge disparity in turnout by age. Seniors and those 18-34 are both about equal shares of the state’s electorate – each are about 5.5 million voters, at about 25% of those registered. But in returns there are more than 850,000 ballots in from seniors, putting them at 57% of ballots returned, while there are just over 100,000 ballots from those aged 18-34, putting them at 2% of ballots returned. Again, two groups, equal size in registration, but in ballots returned, one is at 57% the other is at 2%. That’s amazing.
We see disparity as well in terms of ethnicity, with Latinos at 28% of registrants but only 15% of returns. And partisanship also has distortions -with Republicans who are 24% of voters overperforming at 32% of returns, and nonpartisans at 29% of registration, but only 19% of returns.
One interesting aspect of this data is how persistent it is across counties.
For example, you may think that LA County, with its competitive mayoral race in 2022, would have higher turnout among early voters in 2022 – and it was. At this point in 2022 they had over 305,000 ballots returned compared to 243,000 ballots returned so far this year – a 20% drop. That makes sense given the change in local contests.
But in Sacramento County, we have the opposite. The city is having a very competitive mayoral race this year and there are at 65,000 returns so far compared to 75,000 at this same point in 2022. So, arguably, a much more intense local political environment, with more TV ads, mailers and campaign activity in Sacramento in 2024 compared to 2022, yet still a 12% drop in ballots returned so far.
What does all this mean for total turnout?
Well, throughout the country there has been a debate over how much early vote data can be analyzed to determine total turnout by Election Day, including the in-person voting. This is due to a few factors – the greatest being the number of changes in how vote by mail is administered.
For example, imagine you were trying to guess attendance at a basketball game. You could look at the total average attendance, you could weight for if it is a weekday or weeknight, and you could also weight for how competitive the two teams are.
But then, how do you adjust if the state legislature decides that one at that game they are going to provide free parking, at another game they are going to build a new set of roads and highways to the stadium, and another they are going to increase the number of seats by 20%, and then at the next game they decide that they are going to pre-order everyone a ticket?
Then, what if the away team protests the way tickets are being sold and calls pre-ordering of tickets FRAUD! and calls for the arrests of everyone who works for Ticketmaster?
All of this would make it harder to project attendance because there are so many moving objects with impacts that cannot be measured by past experience.
This illustrates the problem with determining how early vote and the rate of ballot returns means for turnout. Particularly, what it means for the relative partisan turnout – as in, what can we say from this higher rate of turnout among Republicans versus Democrats at this time?
While that presents important reasons why we should view this data with a grain of salt, there is at least some consistency with how vote by mail is being done in 2024 compared to 2022, and the methods of reporting ballots has been fairly consistent. So, this election cycle in California, it does seem like we can more safely make a general estimation of total turnout looking simply at the topline returns.
Compared to the 2022 Primary we are currently 12% below pace, which, if that held through Election Day, would put us at 29% turnout. That’s not exactly a “prediction” but that is what I am predicted to be predicting.
We could see a spike in turnout for some reason in the coming days, but it is hard to see what may cause that. And we could see a big bump in Republican participation near the end if those voters are waiting to vote in person due to the continued Trump claims that vote by mail is akin to voter fraud. But even with that, we should still expect turnout to be the lowest share of registered voters in the state’s history, dipping below the 31% in 2012. In total turnout it will be higher - because we have five million more voters than we did in 2012 - but percentage wise it should be lower. And in raw numbers it should be a couple million votes lower than primary turnout in the 2016 or 2020 elections.
As always, keep checking your email in the mornings to see what turnout looks like. And contact us if you have any questions or need any data.
Paul